In the past four
weeks we’ve witnessed 4 debates, 3 of them presidential and one VP. With 2
clear wins for Obama, one for Gov. Romney and a too close to call finish
between Biden & Ryan, we’re back where we started. With the President smooth
sailing towards reelection. That’s not to say there haven’t been interesting
moments, it’s actually been a very busy month for analysts all over the world. Here’s
my take on the whole story:
Since most people are
likely to have made up their minds by the time the debates are held and aren’t
looking to be persuaded otherwise, there is a general consensus among experts that
debates don’t really matter. There have been however, some exceptions to this
rule. Like the Kennedy/Nixon debate of 1960 which according to many swung the
election in favor of a more attractive and presidential JFK. Well, after the
first debate in Denver in which Mitt Romney (then trailing by 4 points) clearly
outwitted the President and won by a considerable margin, even I thought the
election could go down the same path if Obama didn’t up his game. All that Romney
needed was to take advantage of the momentum his first performance generated
and deliver some more blows in New York and Florida. That didn’t happen.
The President comfortably
took the second one home 46% to 39% leaving the score tied 1 to 1. Monday night
was Romney’s last chance to prove his worth just days away from the election. The
last clash was held at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla. It was a round
table, a format similar to that of the Vice Presidential debate between Joe Biden
and Paul Ryan. It was divided into segments, all regarding foreign policy. The moderator
was the very experienced Bob Schieffer of CBS News, a household name when it
comes to third debates; he moderated the Bush/Kerry debate of ’04 & the
McCain/Obama of ’08.
Throughout his
administration, the President has had many triumphs in foreign policy. He ended
the war in Iraq, killed Osama Bin Laden and took part, along with other members
of NATO, in the removal of Muammar Gaddafi from power in Libya, so there wasn’t
much room for Romney to attack on this front, the only major setback in Obama’s
policy was the government’s inability to protect the staff at the American Consulate
in Benghazi from an attack that cost the lives of four men including ambassador
Christopher Stevens. We were all expecting Romney to focus on this; it’d be his
only real opportunity to question the President’s resolve when facing direct
threats to the American people. Schieffer asked:
The first question and it
concerns Libya. The controversy over what happened there continues...What
happened? What caused it? Was it spontaneous? Was it an intelligence failure?
Was it a policy failure? Was there an attempt to mislead people about what
really happened?
Obama knew this was the only place Romney could hit
him and just when we were all expecting Romney’s usual bully self, he avoided
it completely and just gave a general diagnosis of the Middle East situation. From
Syria to Egypt, he even mentioned Mali. It was his only chance and he blew it.
Both of them focused
on Israel which turned out to be the big winner of this debate. Would either of
you be willing to declare that an attack on Israel is an attack on the United
States? Asked Schieffer. The president was the first to answer:
“Israel
is a true friend. It is our greatest ally in the region. And if Israel is
attacked, America will stand with Israel” then came Mitt: “If Israel is attacked, we have their back,
not just diplomatically, not just culturally, but militarily.”
It’s a very important
point. They both support Israel, the difference is: would they be willing to
allow or help Israel bomb Iran? We know Gov. Romney is a close friend of Prime
Minister Netanyahu who’s adamant on bombing Iran before they get a nuclear bomb.
This could potentially be a recipe for yet another conflict in the Middle East.
President Obama has guaranteed that as long as he remains commander in chief, Iran
won´t get a nuclear bomb but has never spoken of an attack, just sanctions to
Iran if it continues to enrich uranium.
Obama’s greatest
moment came when the Gov. questioned the downsizing of the military:
“Excuse me; our Navy is smaller now
than at any time since 1917 (…) I want to make sure that we have the ships that
are required by our Navy. Our Air Force is older and smaller than at any time
since it was founded in 1947.”
To which Obama
brilliantly responded:
“Well, Governor, we also have
fewer horses and bayonets, because the nature of our military's changed. We
have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have
these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines.”
The “horses and
bayonets” line immediately became a worldwide trending topic on Twitter, it was
the cherry on top of the President’s performance. Important omissions were the
financial crisis in Europe and the war on drugs in Mexico, a country that
shares a 2000 mile border with the U.S. and is immersed in a conflict much
bloodier than Syria’s. Deaths in Mexico more than double Syria’s 30,000 in the
last 6 years but somehow didn’t even deserve a mention.
Obama took this one
too, without breaking a sweat. According to a CBS instant poll of uncommitted voters,
he won the last debate 53% to 23%. So, after 3 debates Romney’s chances are
pretty slim. The Huffington Post has the electoral vote count at 253 for Obama
and 191 for Romney with just 14 days left in the campaign. Intrade.com, a website in which there is
actual money running on who will win the race has Obama at 57.1%, way ahead of
Romney’s 43.0%.
The former governor
of Massachusetts needs a miracle to turn this one around, between his “47%”
comments and his lack of initiative in the last debate, he dug his own grave.
Looks like the Obama’s will call1600 Pennsylvania Avenue home until 2016.
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